Forex Accounts update
by
Managed Forex Pro
All the accounts are experiencing drawdown to some extent lately.
Devrim gave back most of the recovery gains since the big drawdown, with sizable open positions.
WON is down about 5% month to date, with open positions.
ROV is off 3.4% MTD. It has no open positions as it is a short term day trading strategy. The test account is still up 7.5% since May 11 start.
FSR is down 15% since starting a month ago.
QFXMA is down 0.8% with light trading.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, qfxma, rove, WON
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July Forex Accounts Summary
by
Managed Forex Pro
Devrim had a bunch of good trades last week and the account recovered quite a bit, about 12% in 2X account, but still down about 20% from end of May equity level. The account will probably recover given more time. However, given the fact that the 2X account was down well over 50% at one point, it is too high risk because there is a saying something like "the largest drawdown is always the one that is yet to come". The base 1X account might be ok as part of diversified portfolio, although the risk/reward is a lot less favorable than we once thought.
WON finished July with 1.89% profit. It had about 4.2% realized profit and 2.3% floating loss on July 31.
ROV was up 2.09% in July. It was up more in the first half of the month and gave back some gains towards the end. Very good program as far as risk management goes.
QFXMA had a down month, with a loss of 1.75% in the base account, 5.25% in 3X account. Hope to see some good results from the new automated currency basket trading soon.
We started live tracking of a new automated day trading system
FSR, which seems promising. Our test account is up about 2% since starting mid July. More on it later.
We no longer have
007 live tracking account after May drawdown. Heard it was flat in July.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, qfxma, rove, WON
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Forex accounts
by
Managed Forex Pro
Devrim recovered a bit , with only small positions open currently. Up 2.4% for the month in my 2X account, but still down over 30% from end of May level.
QFXMA had no new trades for the past 10 days or so, as the trader has been working on automating the strategy at PFG. That work is now done, I was told, and the accounts will be traded live using the new setup later this week after some initial testing using our own account. More currencies pairs will be traded to spread out the risk.
WON currently up 3.5% on the month. The volatility in the account has been pretty low this month, due to low leverage.
ROV is a day trading program with excellent risk management. The accounts are up 2.1% for July as of this writing.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, qfxma, rove, WON
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Mixed results in forex accounts
by
Managed Forex Pro
Devrim down more, 30-40% again in 2X accounts for June if he still holds the same position overnight, as the market continues to go against the positions. Hate to think that Friday is another news day and more volatility is expected in the account. Really don't like seeing so much risk in a trade. Maybe it is time to stop loss for me. This account should not be leveraged. At 1X, the risk is ok, but the reward is a bit low relative to risk.
Only another small profitable trade in
QFXMA since last update.
WON trades came back into profit, up about 3% at this time. We will see if it ends the month with a profit or loss with two more trading days. It will probably be moderate either way.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, qfxma, WON
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Forex traders
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim dropped more, with base leverage account down 12.5%, and 25% in 2X account for June. This is an ugly month for sure.
WON is down about 4.5% with positions still open. The trader still feels confident in his long term position.
QFXMA only had a small trade since last update and it was a tiny loss. Up 1.86% month to date in the base account.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, qfxma, WON
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Forex accounts
by
Managed Forex Pro
Devrim off some today, back to 20% down in 2X account.
QFXMA closed the trade with a nice profit. Up 1.92% for the month in the base account, 5.76% in 3X account. He sometimes holds the trade after New York session close, but the trade rarely lasts more than 24 hours. The trader assured us that he will continue to strive for low drawdown.
WON is still holding, down 2.1% in June including open positions.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, qfxma, WON
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Managed forex accounts update
by
Managed Forex Pro
Devrim recovered quite a bit from his worst drawdown. The 2X accounts are still down about 17% in June (including a few percent floating loss in current open position), still a long way from full recovery but far better than 40%+ drawdown. The base account without additional leverage is more tolerable in its volatility, as we are looking at 20-25% historical maximum drawdown (the current one), with about the same range of potential net annual returns.
QFXMA had some trades in the past week. Down about 1% so far this month with a trade open right now.
WON is still holding his positions, floating down about 4.2% for June at the moment, it was down a few percent more at some point last week. I have talked to the trader to add more short term trades in the future, as I am not a big fan of long term trades, :)
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, qfxma, WON
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Devrim account...ouch
by
Managed Forex Pro
I thought Devrim might take some time off first this month after eking out a small profit in May, but he jumped right back into the market. By the end of Friday, the account got into an unprecedented drawdown, 40% in the 2X
DEV account. I really don't like this particular trade, holding a hefty position over the NFP announcement and then over the weekend. This really makes me nervous. Have to see how this resolves next week. With these big drawdowns, the risk/reward looks a lot worse now than it did before last November. It probably makes more sense for most people not leveraging this account from now on. The 2X account should be regarded as high risk.
This drawdown makes me appreciate the low leverage in
WON account particularly. We work with the trader closely and actually hold LPOA over this managed account, so we have direct input on risk management and leverage usage. The positions went against us by a few hundred pips earlier in the week, and yet we were only floating down a few percent, thanks to the low leverage. We are now up 2.5% for June with the market swinging in our favor by the end of the week, with the positions still open.
QFXMA (previously QFX) had no trades this week.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, qfxma, WON
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May performance of managed forex accounts
by
Managed Forex Pro
Devrim did end the month with a small profit at PFG. 2X
DEV account is up 0.91%. The account balance is actually slightly lower than that of last month end, simply because the April performance fee taken out is more than the profit this month. Nonetheless, it is another positive month, his twentieth in a row. I should mention that he was a bit more conservative at his own firm this month in terms of intra-month volatility and position size, and actually is carrying about 5% loss into June in the medium risk group. So depending on how you look at it (which broker), his winning streak can be considered ended too.
QFX trader came back from vacation and made a trade on Friday, a 1% loss in the base account. The base leverage account ended the month up 5.8%. We started 2X and 3X live tracking accounts on May 14, and they are up 2.55% and 3.82% respectively.
WON only traded lightly in the latter part of May because he moved to a new place. Trading activity should pick up some starting next week. The account made 14.52% profit in May, an exceptional month given the low leverage used. The target return is about 5% monthly. Holding couple of small open positions currently, down 0.6% on them.
I revoked POA on
007 after it had a good trade on Wednesday. What made me gave up on it is not the absolute magnitude of drawdown, but the fact that I don't see an upward trend of the
equity curve (Jan 23 - May 29).
Quite a few traders on the radar screen, will see how things develop.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, WON
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More recovery in DEV account
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Managed Forex Pro
DEV 2X managed account is now down less than 1% at the end of today. With three more days to go in May, I sure hope it can end the month in positive territory again.
Sentiment has been sitting near low point in drawdown for a long time. Will remove it from portfolio soon. It was not a disaster as far as drawdown goes, but it lasted too long and time is money.
No trade in
QFX. Getting the web page ready for it.
WON up fraction of a percent. The trader will trade small $1K test accounts for up to 3 months before the $5K minimum kicks in.
007 hitting new lows for a few days in a row. Lost over 2% today. Peak-to-valley drawdown reached 18.7%, down 15.54% in May, and lost 12.39% overall since Jan 23, the start of the program at current broker. It was touted as low risk, low drawdown managed account, but it looks like we can slowly bleed to death this way. Ready to abandon ship with my test account.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, Sentiment, WON
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Devrim has done it again...almost
by
Managed Forex Pro
Devrim has recovered most of the losses. 2X
DEV account is still off about 3.3% for the month. The positions are still open so we need to wait till next week to see the final resolution. It gives me hope again that we might end the month with some profit after all. Maybe I should not be surprised after so many times.
QFX managed account up a bit today, over 0.3% in 1X account, 1% in 3X account. Need to work on the web page this long weekend in prepration to offer it at PFG.
WON had no trade. I think he won't trade much for the rest of the month while settling in his new place. He has way exceeded his profit target this month anyway.
007 trader is now off 13.4% in May. Peak-to-valley drawdown swelled to 16.7% now. Overall drawdown since Jan 23 start is 10.2%.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, WON
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Managed forex accounts update
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim account recovered partially, nice to see the daily report. 2X
DEV accounts are down only 6% or so for the month, a bit higher for those who joined while the account was up this month. We are not out of the woods yet, as there are still positions open with unrealized profits.
No trade in
QFX and
WON. We might need to rename
QFX to something else as it might be confused with some existing program.
More loss for
007 managed account today, -2.6%. Peak to valley drawdown reached 14.25%. Down 10.9% in May, and a loss of 7.6% since start of the program on Jan 23. Care to see the daily equity curve? hm... just hit four more stop losses, down 3.8% more.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, WON
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Managed accounts weekly recap
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim finished the week with a moderate drawdown. Equity is down about 1% on the month including open trades in 2X
DEV account. I am not worried yet as he has two full weeks to pull out of it. He has done that many times before, but of course no guarantee he can do it every time. Let's see what next week brings.
WON started trading again. The open position has close to 1% unrealized profit. Test account is now available at Oanda.
Contact us for past records and account opening information.
Couple of clients asked me about a new managed account that they read about called
SELECT. One look at April trading report, and I am confident it was not from a real managed account.
QFX made some profit last week. It was down 3% in April, up 4.82% this month in the base leverage account. Like its low risk/drawdown. We split our master test account into 3 separate accounts, base account, as well as 2X and 3X accounts. That way, we can track the performance under different leverages separately. We will have account opening information soon.
007 lost all the profit since Jan 23 and more. Down about 1.5% after 3.7 months of trading at current broker. I am ready to pull the plug on the test account if I need it to test another account.
Have been working with a trader
RGM for some time. He has been trying to control the loss to 2% for each trade since April 10. So it will be a low risk account as well if it works out. Past test account statement is
here. Let's see how he performs in the next couple of months.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, Select, WON
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A good week for managed forex accounts
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim is holding a small position over the weekend. Equity is still up about 1.6% in 2X
DEV account. Noticed Thursday that April performance fee was deducted from the accounts. I am going over the client accounts this weekend to make sure there are no obvious errors.
007 managed account had a good week, now up 2% in May. It is up 5.8% overall since Jan 23, much less than its performance prior to that. I think I know why that is the case.
QFX is up 1.3% overall, after one full month at the new broker PFG. Low drawdown as well as low profit so far, will continue testing.
WON had a great week. Working on a web page to put the trading records. Up 6% in a month (test started April 10) with very low leverage, 1.5:1 to 3:1. I wanted the trader to keep the leverage consistently low. Aggressive investors can always leverage it up 2X or 3X in the future to target higher returns, by taking on more risk.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, WON
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Performance update on managed accounts
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim finished April with 5.47% at PFG in 2X accounts. His profitable month streak is now at 19. No new trades at PFG since last update. He usually starts trading at his own firm first every month, where he made 1 trade, up 0.5% for medium risk group in May.
April was another down month for
SEN, -4.02%. Up 1% this month.
QFX is about break even since April 10 at PFG. Its drawdowns are small,less than 5% in over 2 months of total testing period so far. Will test it longer. Old statement from a $25K account can be found
here.
007 finished last month at 1.72% gain. Had two consecutive losing days in May, down 5.6%. Overall, it is down 2.1% since Jan 23, the start of managed account at current broker. Peak to valley drawdown is 9.2%. When I plotted the daily equity curve, it looks like random walk around zero line. Not impressed by the results so far although the drawdown was not excessive.
WON had a moderate drawdown of 5% after my small test account started because the trader changed his strategy to day trading. Now he is reverting to his old style of medium term, low leverage strategy. Test account is still down 2%.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, Sentiment, WON
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Managed forex account update
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim surprised me again with more trades today, made close to 0.7% in 2X account. So he is up almost 5.5% on the month.
Sentiment Aggressive dropped a bit more, down 5% in April. It is really struggling to get out of the current drawdown.
QFX had no trade. The trader agreed to lower the commission.
WON lost(pun intended, lol). Test account is down 3%.
Another bad day for
007, lost about 3.8%. Down 1.8% in April, up only fraction of a percent since Jan 23.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, Sentiment, WON
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Volatile week for Devrim managed account
by
Managed Forex Pro
Just when I thought the storm was over and it would be all smooth sailing for the rest of the month, Devrim got into another drawdown (about 12% in 2X account), but he ended up with a profit at the end of the week yet again. The 2X
DEV account is up 4.8% for April. There is a high probability that he might not trade again this month, but I was wrong with such predictions before, so have to wait and see, lol.
QFX has been trading very conservatively, up about 1%. Hardly any drawdown at all, I like it so far. I am a little concerned that the commission might be eating up too much profit, so talking to the trader to lower the commission. Expect to have this one ready in couple of weeks.
007 partly recovered, up 2.2% or so for April. Up 4.2% overall since Jan 23, before 25% annual performance fee.
WON test account is back to even. It is a conservative account, so volatility should be low.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, WON
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Managed accounts
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Managed Forex Pro
Dev is up more today. It is positive now month to date, about 1%. Has a small position on at the end of the day. He is amazing. I admit sometimes I am a bit scared during the drawdowns when the account has a pretty hefty leverage buildup, but it is good to see that he takes losses now more readily than ever.
007 down 3% today, lost all profit from Jan 23 to date.
QFX had a break even day but down a bit after commissions.
The trader forgot to trade my $100
WON account today, only traded his own account, lol. So I missed another 1% gain with low leverage. I do have statement from his account. The problem will be solved tomorrow when his account also goes into the "Fxmanager", Oanda's own incarnation of PAMM software. He traded aggressively in his own account this month, up well over 40% month to date. But he is more comfortable using low leverage trading other accounts.
Labels: 007, devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts, QFX, Sentiment, WON
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Managed forex accounts update
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Managed Forex Pro
It has become a cliche, but yes, Devrim did it again. Devrim managed account at PFG pulled out of the drawdown and is down less than 1% for the month now. Still has a position on over the weekend with some unrealized profit. It looks like that he will probably continue his winning streak again this month.
SEN is down 2.5% in April.
QFX traded for couple of days, made small profit. Found out that the commission was not applied correctly, working with the broker to set it straight.
007 is up 0.6% month to date. Up 2.6% overall since Jan 23.
My tiny test account at Oanda for the trader I talked about in the last blog started trading. He put on a 150 unit position in a $98 account, up 2.3% in a day with this low leverage catching the drop in gbp/jpy. Most traders call this a 1.5:1 leverage, that is incorrect. In reality, it is 3:1 since 1 GBP is roughly 2 USD. Still thinking of a name for this one, I will call it "
WON" for now.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Drawdowns in managed accounts
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim managed account gave back the gains from last couple of days with a 7% loss on closed trades today, now down 9-10% in 2X accounts for April. It never feels good during a drawdown, but I remind myself that he has had larger intra month drawdowns before and came back to profitable months. With three weeks still left in April, I have no reason to doubt that he could do it again, although nothing is guaranteed in trading.
Sentiment is down couple of percent, very low volatility this month so far.
QFX still has no trade in the account yet, but everything is setup and ready.
007 had its largest single day loss today about 5%. Almost flat now for April, only 0.5% profit left.
Have been working with a young trader in Asia for couple of months now, chatting almost daily on YM. He shows a lot of promise, although he has no prior experience as money manager. He told me he has known a few dozen forex traders over the last few years, and he is the only guy surviving the learning curve. His key to survival was low leverage. I have seen 4 months of results from a small account at Oanda. It is not enough to make a final judgment, but I feel quite confident about him. He seems capable of producing consistent returns with low leverage. I setup Fxmanager account at Oanda for him, so that he can trade my small test account along with his own.
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Managed accounts update
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim had a rough start in April. The 2X account was down over 8% last week. The drawdown was reduced to 3.5% today on closed trades, but there is a new open position. Let's see how it plays out tomorrow. Noticed that the performance fee for March was deducted today.
There is hardly any movement in the Sentiment account.
QFX will start any time now.
007 finished March with a moderate 2.3% drawdown. It has done very well so far in April, up 5.5%. The overall gain reached 7.7% (gross of 25% annual performance fee) for the first account that started trading on Jan. 23 at the current broker. I like its low daily volatility and strict day trading approach. With its current fee structure, I am expecting 3% a month on average before performance fee. If the trader can achieve more, even better.
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Surprise trade from Devrim; Sentiment up
by
Managed Forex Pro
Well, Devrim decided to take another trade yesterday, which surprised me a bit as I thought he was done for the month two weeks ago. Maybe it was too good a trade to pass up. My 2X DEV account is up about 1.5% on that trade. Up 6.8% or so for the month.
Going to our first
live seminar session tomorrow. It is in north San Francisco bay area, about 1.5 hours of drive from my south bay location.
Sentiment has some nice recovery. The SEN accounts are up 8% for the month. My patience is paying off a little. Hope it can continue the climb as it is still off quite a bit from the peak.
QFX should start trading next week, with a fairly large account from my partner as the first account. Previous test account statement can be found
here. It started at $25K.
007 has not been doing well in March, off a bit more. About -3.6% for the month. First managed account has less than 1% profit left since Jan 23. The good thing about this program is its low daily risk, which is less than 3% on any day so far. Its long term profitability remains to be seen.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Quiet week for the managed forex accounts
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Managed Forex Pro
No trade in Devrim account last week as I suspected. And not much movement in Sentiment Aggressive either, up 2.5% for the month. Look forward to seeing Devrim on video conference in our
live seminar.
Our account funds arrived at PFG. Hope to start QFX trading soon.
007 was down a bit last week. Our test account still has 1% profit. Month to date number is -1.3%. In the two months since the inception of the managed account at current broker on Jan 23, the account is up 3% overall. It is probably unrealistic to expect the same performance numbers achieved previously in the Oanda account, because it did not have the 2pip trading commission.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Managed forex accounts update
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim had another profitable week. He did take some heat during the week as he was shorting EUR/USD, but was able to close all positions on Friday in profit. My 2X DEV account is up 5.3% in March. It is possible that he might not trade again this month, as the profit is close to his monthly target.
contact us for daily account statements.
Sentiment is still in a drawdown. My SEN accounts are up only couple of percent for the month at this moment.
Our 007 test account started last week. Up 3.1% due to good timing as the trader had a small drawdown before that. The trader is up 0.83% month to date. The first managed account at current broker started on Jan 23, and is up 5.3% overall.
Transferring our own account to PFG to setup QFX. Agreed on a fee structure with the broker, hope to start the trading soon.
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Strong week for Devrim
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim traded Wednesday through Friday last week, and my 2X DEV account is up 3%. He is still the best trader that I have seen. PFG Devrim daily statements from my own account now available upon request,
contact us if you would like to check them out.
Sentiment Aggressive recovered a few percent last week, still off a lot from the peak.
Getting 007 test account started next week, submitted paperwork last Friday. It is about break even in March.
Still talking to the broker to setup QFX.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Another good month for Devrim; Sentiment down more
by
Managed Forex Pro
Devrim finished February with 5.66% profit in 2X accounts at PFG. His risk management this month has been impressive. We are planning a free
live seminar in San Francisco's North Bay Area Friday March 28th & Sunday the 30th. We will have Devrim do a Q&A session through video conferencing. The Managing Director and some staff from Devrim's own trading firm will fly over from Boston to participate in our seminar.
Sentiment aggressive account performance has been disappointing this month, down about 15% in February. My first SEN account is down 8.5% overall since Oct 23, 2007. My other IRA accounts that were opened a bit later are down more, close to 20%. It is really testing my patience now. I need to see some positive action in March.
Trying to setup QFX (I called it LCB in previous blog) at PFG. Will see how this process goes as we have positive expectations. This kind of things always take longer than expected.
Been watching "007" on the side line, will start my own test account next week as the initial impression is good so far.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Four Ways that Foreign Politics Affect the Dollar
by
Managed Forex Pro
This is an article by our guest writer Heather Johnson
Any forex trader who relies on more than technical analysis to pick a currency pair understands that there are a seemingly limitless number of variables that can be taken into the equation. Inflation, capital markets, real estate trends, economic indicators, interest rates, entitlements, trade, and even the weather can profoundly impact the forex markets. In addition to all of these factors, any trader who dabbles in the Dollar undoubtedly keeps abreast of US politics. It is clear that tax cuts, the popularity of the current President, and the never-ending election cycle all affect how the Dollar performs in the currency markets. However, it might be just as important to follow political developments in other countries to determine what the Dollar will do next.
As the savvy forex trader understands, the Dollar is affected by politics that stretch far beyond the borders of the United States. Changes in the politics of other countries can impact the Dollar in a similar manner to American political developments, but there are also a number of specific and unique ways that foreign politics can affect US currency. Stay abreast of the progression of events in these four areas and you will have a better idea of where the Dollar is headed.
1. Buying oil in Dollars: Traditionally, almost all major energy transactions have been conducted with the Dollar as the currency of choice. While it is still the case that most of the world still purchases oil in Dollars, there are a number of countries that have started to buck this trend in recent years. While some nations have switched to the Euro merely because it appears to be a stronger currency of late, a number of countries have dissed the Dollar for purely political reasons. Venezuela and Syria, two oil-rich nations that are no friends of the US and especially of the current administration, have started bartering for oil and conducting all cash transactions in Euros. If this trend continues, demand for the Dollar will drop significantly and the US currency will continue to be devalued.
2. The Euro flexing its muscles: Speaking of the EU’s relatively new currency, the strength of the Euro has steadily risen since its inception. The Dollar is no longer the undisputed global currency that it once was. The Euro has not only replaced the Dollar in certain energy transactions, but has also taken its place in a variety of other international operations. As the Euro continues to buff up, the Dollar looks weaker and weaker by comparison.
3. Changing foreign reserves: For decades the US has benefited from the preference that foreign countries have shown for the Dollar. Government holdings of countries worldwide have been dominated by the strong and stable Dollar for years. However, certain nations are getting nervous as the Dollar weakens and are looking to diversify. This could prove devastating to the US currency, especially if a country like China decides to liquefy its vast Dollar-dominated holdings.
4. Stabilizing and destabilizing developments: When other countries around the globe are economically and politically stable, investors show confidence in their respective currencies, encouraging diversification of assets. On the other hand, investors tend to shy away from countries that are in a state of turmoil, making the traditionally stable Dollar seem more attractive. In this way, conflict anywhere in the world can impact the Dollar in the forex markets, even if the US has no direct involvement in the altercation. This is why being a truly informed citizen of the world can not only make you a more well-rounded person, but also have a positive impact on your bottom-line.About the author of the article:Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for
currency trading and forex trading information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com .
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Devrim back in action
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Managed Forex Pro
Devrim started trading this month since last Tuesday and has made about 3.5% so far in the 2X DEV account. Has a moderate open position by the end of Tuesday. 16 months of positive monthly return is a pretty amazing streak in forex trading. I sure hope it continues. We are excited to offer a new
institutional Devrim account at MF Global.
Sentiment is still in a drawdown. SEN account is down 11% for the month now. It is down 4.3% overall since my first account started on Oct 23, 2007. Quite a few investors have given up on this managed account. The overall drawdown is still acceptable, considering its historical return. I am staying put for now, hoping for a breakout to the upside eventually, although 4 months of wait is a bit too long, I have to admit. We will have to take a longer term view on this account.
LEO has been trading carefully since the last drawdown, gaining back the losses steadily. I can definitely see a difference in his trading in that the leverage used is much lower, without the excessive averaging down. It will take some time to recover the losses, as the account is still down over 30%. Due to the asymmetrical nature of drawdown vs. profit, it is especially important to keep the losses small. A 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain to offset.
We have been testing a trader
LCB since December, with a live $25K account. He traded from Dec 5-31, 2007, then Jan 22-Feb 13, 2008. The account had a gross profit of 9.18%. Observed drawdown was less than 5%. The detailed trade statement can be downloaded
here. The account is currently being moved to a different broker.
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Managed Forex Accounts update
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Managed Forex Pro
I have been extremely busy lately, so have not been able to give account updates regularly.
Devrim did not trade again at our main broker since last update. It is not unusual for him to do this, as he trades at more than one broker and often not at the same time. He should start trading again very soon. The 2x
DEV account was up close to 3% gross for Jan 2008. The performance is lower than his historical average, but it was not bad considering most forex traders performed very poorly in January.
SEN was officially down 3.86% for January. It is down about 8% for Feb as of this writing. The account has been fluctuating within a range after reaching the peak late November 2007. For a longer term perspective, my first account which started Oct 23 is down 2% overall at the moment.
LEO had a big drawdown near the end of January, revealing vulnerability in his trading strategy. The averaging down method used in his trading can lead to big drawdowns if the overall leverage is not controlled carefully. My account lost previous profits and is down 35% overall. The trader needs some major adjustments in his strategy. It will be months before this managed account is ready. Unfortunately, KAN also had a drawdown around the same time (-22% overall)and he decided to take a break in forex trading.
Watching a new program "007" closely. It seems to have decent risk management, but not showing any profit yet at the main broker in its short history there. I need more time to evaluate this one.
I started to test a new trader
RGM with a small $1K account since Jan 25. He is showing excellent risk management, which is the most important thing to me. I will be posting account statement updates
here.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Swift recovery of Sentiment
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Managed Forex Pro
Sentiment Funds recovered all the drawdown in the month in the last two days, pretty amazing. It is about break even for January. We talked to the broker about the fund and learned some interesting facts. It is an automated system, but there is a trader watching the live accounts around the clock. There is no build-in hard stop in the system, but the human trader can make discretionary decision to pull the plug if necessary. The market has been especially volatile this month. We were told that the drawdown experienced by the accounts was still within the expected range of the system. Galleon test account also recovered partially, but still down substantially for the month.
DEV closed more profits and it is positive again on the month.
GST stopped trading. I did not lose money in the end because the position did partially recover. I am using the account to test another trader.
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Drawdowns in most accounts
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Managed Forex Pro
DEV (Devrim) took some losses on both Monday and Tuesday, then made up quite a bit today. It is good to see him limiting damages and cutting losses when he needs to. We know some other money manager kept saying "I am 100% positive the trade will come back, the trade will come back, the trade will..." while trading the accounts all the way to zero! With the recent losses, my DEV account (2X) is down 0.95% in January. He still has plenty of time left to keep his positive monthly return streak going.
Sentiment Funds took some severe beating lately. The drawdown is much larger than its historical high. As of this moment, my
SEN account is down almost 10% overall (started Oct 23, 2007), 18% month to date. The drawdown was even higher earlier in the day. There is a saying that "records are made to be broken". So are the historical drawdowns. I am not ready to give up on this one yet though. By the way, I do have a
Galleon test account, and it is down a LOT more!
LEO is taking a well deserved vacation, no trading. Up 11.69% on the month till last week.
KAN still trades VERY lightly, almost no change from last update. He told me he will likely start to trade more soon.
I was getting updates from my friend's
Zurich-1 account, because I did not have a test account directly with the trader. And he was very detail oriented with the accounts so it was as good as my own test account. My friend revoked the LPOA on his Zurich-1 account (started Dec 18, 2007) after it went down over 85%! The trader took huge risks after December drawdown trying to recover quickly and got hit hard repeatedly.
GST still has the large open trade drawdown. Going to test couple of other traders with small accounts soon.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Managed forex accounts update
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Managed Forex Pro
We attended the PFG conference in Scottsdale, AZ last weekend, had a great time there. Made some good connections and talked to a few money managers who also attended the conference. PFG is bringing many managed forex accounts to retail investors with $5K minimum investments. Some of the money managers normally have high minimums like $100K and up. As always, we will evaluate those managed accounts carefully before offering them to our clients. If past experience is any indication, only a small percentage of these money managers will do well.
LEO is really on a roll this month. He has been flat before the end of NY session every day and had only one losing day (-1.39%). My account is up 11.69% month to date. He will be on vacation next week, but might still trade lightly. Ready to offer this managed account once the paperwork is all done. It might take couple more weeks.
KAN traded very lightly, made some small profit. My overall drawdown is reduced to 5.98%.
DEV carried a moderate open position with some drawdown over the weekend. He did close some winning trades since last week. Account is up 1.09% in January including the open drawdown.
SEN continues to struggle a bit after reaching the peak in late November 2007. Currently I am down 2.2% since starting the account on Oct 23, 2007. Month to date drawdown is about 11%.
GST is still holding on to the losing position. Open drawdown is over 30%. I don't like it. If that's how he wants to trade, he should have used lower leverage. Good thing I only gave him a small test account.
We found out the reason CHB stopped trading for the last few weeks was that the trader wanted to switch broker. The account performed well during the time that he did trade.
Labels: devrim, forex managed account, managed forex accounts
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Leaving for a conference tomorrow
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Managed Forex Pro
All three of us will travel tomorrow for a conference hosted by PFG, one of the brokers we work with. We hope to talk to some money managers in person.
LEO is trading very well as we are getting closer to the launch of the MA. He is up
5.92% month to date, without much account volatility. We hope to have all the paperwork done and launch this managed account by the end of the month.
KAN had a rocky start so far, with a moderate overall drawdown of
6.48%. He trades fairly conservatively, and I think he will be fine. We learnt that in addition to forex, KAN is also a talented S&P Futures trader as well. So hopefully we will work with him on futures trading too. One thing about futures trading is that it is more regulated than forex. The trader has to register if he trades for more than 15 clients.
DEV had two trading days this week, up on both. My 2X account is up 2.03% month to date. We had a call with the trader Devrim today and discussed trading plans for our new $100K minimum institutional account. It will be traded conservatively targeting 3-5% gross monthly and less than 15% drawdown. DEV indicated that in order to keep account risk/volatility low under the minimum trade size constraint of the institutional broker, it is best to start with at least $300K rather than a single $100K account. So we are working on opening a few client accounts before the actual trading commences. We do plan to offer a 2X leverage choice.
CHB still had no new trades in the account.
I am getting close to giving up on
GST for the second time. It has floating drawdown that reached 34%. There are signs that he is reverting to his old self. There is a fine distinction between trading long term trend and letting losers run forever. You simply can't use that much leverage if you really want to trade long term trend. I guess I still have too much patience for them after dealing with so many losing traders.
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